11/2 session end

A Fed day really gave us a lot of volatility today, with some major spikes up and down at key times of the day. Continuing from last night, the Euro managed to break above the 1.3770x area I mentioned and managed some controlled topside gains, while retraces took it back down to breakeven. However, the pair seems to have found support at this level again with the markets closing which is also at a 50% fib level from the move up starting very early this morning . We could possibly be in for this correction pattern to take on a 5 wave impulse form itself. The first chart shows the 15 minute TF situation with price bouncing of 1.3770 repeatedly and now on a slow climb to the top side. The second chart indicates the possibility that we've just completed the 1-2 wave of the 5 wave pattern, the third chart shows my possible targets if this pattern manifests.

I personally think this is a pretty bold scenario that would need a LOT of buying power behind it. The waves might be much smaller but this initial impulse up from last night was about a 200 pip move to the topside. On the other hand we may simply stay in consolidation here below 1.3830 and start another pattern of ABC corrections until we get another breakout. Another convincing break of 1.3770x would provide reason to enter long, but I would again be wary of the 1.3830 level at the retest as rejection there seems pretty reasonable. I think some of the other pairs also have some room to move but somewhat contrary to the possible moves of the Euro. On the one hand the Aussie has tested the 1.0280 area three times since yesterday with increasingly higher lows but today has also found trouble making higher highs as well. We're left with a flag formation in the corrective waves of the Aussie at this point as you can see on the following 1H chart.

The consistent rejection below may give some room to move upwards along with the Euro, while the flag formation might also indicate a bearish continuation. Zooming out to a 4H chart gives plenty of reason to believe the Aussie may start to head back down as we have a possible head and shoulders formation with neckline at around 1.0320.

The Swiss Franc might also have room for more upside movement itself as it just experienced a pretty solid impulse in the last couple of days as shown on the 1H chart. Below however is the 4H chart which shows we may possibly see a reversal down to form the rest of a head and shoulders pattern as we did last week with the head and shoulders contained within it. That breakout resulted in approximately a 400 pip downward push over the course of 5 days. Any downward movement in the Swiss Franc is sometimes reflected as upwards movement in the Euro depending on who is trading the market and how. Naturally, this correlation is not always present but when these pairs do move in tandem it tends to add more reason to enter for me. Charts for the CHF attached below.