Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Elliott Waves

So I was looking at my 1H chart given this recent price consolidation to see if I could find any indication as to where the price might be going next. It's starting to look to me like an Elliott 5 wave pattern with an ABC correction wave. The chart attached shows the impulse waves 1,3,5 pretty clean and in line with what one might expect of such an impulsive move in the market with the 2,4 waves as correction/consolidation in between. At the bottom we can see the beginning of an ABC correction wave where price remains rangebound for a short time tracing up and down before the market sets up for the next impulsive move. There's no real telling how long this correction could go on or the price targets in it as it doesn't always behave perfectly. Currently, if price breaks above the trend line consolidation on the 15M chart I'm anticipating a climb to somewhere close to 1.3750 before the next wave down in this consolidation or the next move taken by the market. A clean break above opens up the area I've marked in blue to the topside as a possible decision area while a break to the downside puts the possibility of 1.3650x on the table for the third time in the last 24 hours or so. Charts attached.



Price is currently fighting around the 38.2% fib level and the trend lines I've drawn have the most recent high as their intersection. The correction wave will not necessarily break to point C on the chart given that the B wave down made a higher low than the daily low for today. We may be approaching a consolidating triangle formation with these corrective waves indicating a possible continuation pattern for the rest of the week. If this flag is broken we might see stronger downside movement, especially with the news rumors that the Greek cabinet voted unanimously to back the PM on his referendum decision. This is also in line with current market futures which are at -137 on the DJ EURO, -331 on the DAX, -1,094 on the FTSE, and -140 on the SWISS. Time will tell with this pair and I'll be watching closely to see how the scenario plays out with my analysis.

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