I was flat today after last night's impulsive trading and am now just watching the formation from the end of the day on the EUR/USD. Most of my trend lines indicate a descending triangle formation on the M15 from the highs and lows of the last couple of days. Price dipped to a low around 1.360x earlier today and quickly shot back above it in the 1.3650x - 1.3730x area. There was an hour or so above and below these levels but price generally stayed in this region. More importantly, the move from today's high to today's low retraced and stalled at the 50% fib level and has since dipped back down to the 38.2% level and entered consolidation near the end of the triangle formation. I don't anticipate much of a breakout of these regions for a while yet, but my guess is that we might be headed further down to the 1.3650x area again. A clean break, and rejection above 1.3730x would invalidate this while I think a solid break below 1.3650x opens up the possibility of seeing 1.3580x and 1.3530x. There's currently some level of volatility indicating that there is some tug of war on positioning. Spreads are up with the low volume and increased volatility so I'm flat until the Asian session really kicks in.
About ten minutes after this post, price broke out of the descending triangle formation headed for 1.3650x. Arrived there in about 12 minutes. Chart attached. Break below 1.3630x looking for target at 1.36, and below this to the targets mentioned above.
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